S W Monsoon 2016 outlook for Goa - as per the Weather Blog "Vagaries of Weather"

Every year beginning mid April, the well known weather blogger Mr Rajesh Kapadia publishes in his blog "Vagaries of Weather" at http://www.vagaries.in, a series of posts aptly named as Monsoon Watch, analysing the synoptic conditions affecting the setting in of the S W Monssons over the Indian Sub Continent.

The fourth part of the series was posted on May 21 and gives a clearer picture of the onset of the monsoons. The article can be accessed here.

The main highlights of the monsoon onset this year are:

Synoptic situation as on May 21, 2015:
(1) Cyclonic storm ROANU in the Bay of Bengal, which brought copious rains to the East Coast, has weakened into a deep depression over Mizoram and is further expected to weaken into a well marked low pressure area over north east.
(2) The Bay of Bengal branch of the Monsoons has arrived in the Andamans on time
(3) Heat wave continues in the NW including Rajashan, Gujarat as also in Sindh in Pakistan, with temperatures crossing 50C. The seasonal low measuring 996/994 hPa is in place.
(4) Pre monsoon convective activity is seen over central and Penninsular India due to presence of wind discontinuity
(5) Equitorial Cross winds are now well organised. Somali Current is in place.
(6) El Nino conditions are weakening

Based on his experience and deep understanding of the various parameters affecting the onset and quantum of the S W Monssons, as detailed by him in his blog post, Mr  Rajesh Kapadia gives his estimate for the onset of monsoons and quantum of rains up to July 2016 as under:

Mr Kapadia expects that by June 15 S W Monsoon will advance from Kerala, throught upto Central India, into NE States and West Bengal. He expects Monsoon to advance into Central India and North India between June 20th and 30th.

For Goa the analysis presented in Vagaries of Weather would imply:

1. Onset of Monsoon by June 10, and

2. Slightly above Normal quantum of rain during June and July.

Thus the blog Vagaries of the Weather estimates Normal progress of the SWM and rainfall in all of sub continent regions!

Further, while weak El Nino conditions are persisting, there is a 50:50 chance, according to Mr Kapadia, of Neutral ENSO conditions as early as July. This would result, continuation of the Monsoon progress, without the normal mid season Monsoon Break!

For the record, while Vagaries of Weather estimates that Monsoon will reach Kerala by 4/5 June, IMD in its press release of May 15, forecasts the date of arrival of Monsoon at Kerala as June 7 +/- 4 days, ie any time between June 3 to June 11! Also the Preliminary forecast of IMD dated April 12, 2016 estimates the quantum this year as above normal (106% of LPA +/-5%).

SWM 2016 has just arrived in Indian territories! - Posted May 18, 2016

The much anticipated arrival of SW Monsoons is on schedule.

As per the latest mid day report of IMD on May 18, 2016, SW Monsoon has entered the Indian territories of South Andaman Sea and Nicobarese Islands.

 

From the IMD Mid day report :

"The Southwest Monsoon has advanced into some parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, entire south Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands and someparts of north Andaman Sea today, the 18th May 2016. The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passes through Lat. 5°N/ Long.86°E, Lat. 8°N/ Long 87° E Hut Bay and Lat. 12°N / Long. 99° E. Also conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Islands and remaining parts of north Andaman Sea during next 3 to 4 days"

Though the normal arrival of SW Monsoon on West coast of Kerala is on June 1 and in Goa around June 5, IMD had forecast a delay of about a week in its press release of May 15th.

Climatological conditions over the next week, will determine if the forecast is correct or if the monsoons are on time this year!

Overcast conditions and thunder storms. First substantial pre Monsoon rains in Goa - Posted May 16, 2016

Goa has seen some thunderstorm activity over the weekend and continuing into Monday 16, 2016.

On Friday May 13 evening and Saturday May 14 late night, rains with thunder were reported mainly from South Goa, with Sanguem, Quepem and Margao recording most of the rains. On Sunday May 15, rains with thunder storm were reported from Valpoi and Ponda.

Vagaries Goa Rain Gauge at Margao, recorded 8 mm and 4 mm respectively in 24 hours ending 0830 hrs on May 14 and May 15.

These are the first  substantial pre-monsoon rains in Goa.

Skies have remained overcast and more rains are expected under the influence of the Deep Depression BB1 in the Bay of Bengal. BB1 is expected to move N/NW as of May 16.

Under its influence, heavy rainfall is forecast for Chennai and much of South India.

West coast of India from Kerala upto Goa will also get rains under influence from tise system, from Monday May 16 to Thursday19.

Heat Wave across India - but milder in Goa! - Posted May 3, 2016

The heat wave across India really began towards the end of April, and all indications at the start of May point to the heat wave getting stronger, specially in the North, North west, Central, South East and East.

For the week April 24 - 30, 2016 the Maximum temperatures across much of India were between 40 - 45C and minimum temperatures were hovering around 30C, as seen in the graphics below.

Goa saw maximum temperatures almost steady throughout the month of April 2016, between 34- 35C, while minimum temperatures climbed steadily from around 24C at the beginning of the month to over 27C by the end of the month.

Maximum temperatures in Goa during May usually peak around 37C and minimum temperatures can go upto 28 - 29C! A few thunder showers also occur during the month, as pre monsoon showers, helping to temporarily bring down the temperatures.

First two days of May has seen the heat wave spread to much of North India with N. Delhi (Palam) touching 46.2C, Gurgaon 46C, Agra 45.8C and most other cities showing the same trend!

In comparison the temperatures in Goa seem milder, but when one factors in the humidity of around 80 - 90% RH, the heat index easily crosses 40C!

All eyes are now on the Monsoon arrival! Normally May 15 is the Monsoons arrive at Andaman Inslands in the Bay of Bengal. But meteorological discussion boards are alive with speculation that while the SW Monsoons will be good this year they may be delayed by upto 10 days.

We will find out soon in this blog!